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e-Published, Feb 1st, 2007
By Dr. Krishan Maggon, Ph.D., Pharmaceutical Biotechnology R&D Advisor
ICC- Route de Pré Bois 20, PO Box 1887, 1215 GENEVA 15, Switzerland, Email: maggonk@yahoo.com
Abstract
Biomedical journals have recently published several market analysis covering new drugs and sales data for rheumatoid arthritis, influenza vaccines, monoclonal antibodies and recombinant protein therapeutics derived from commercial databases. This paper will revisit and analyse some of the published sales and market data. Authors from firms selling commercial data bases to pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry present their own market data, sales forecast and identify brands, which will drive future growth and markets. Comparison of the sales figures of blockbuster medicines from company sources and commercial reports and databases reveals significant discrepancies. Three Datamonitor papers in 2006 provide different sales and forecast for influenza vaccines. Comparison data from different sources and projections from previous reports or forecasts with actual data is rarely presented or discussed. Such discrepancies may result in a misleading evaluation of product, markets, portfolio, research development and company. Biomedical publications should develop a new policy and apply the same high standards of data reporting as in regular publications for commercial data sources.
Introduction
Market intelligence, consultancy and knowledge providers to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, device and diagnostic industry, had total global sales of $6 billion in 2005. Each year commercial data firms issue hundreds of research reports costing thousands of dollars each and 2007 will be the same. These reports cover global best selling medicines, new drugs and market analysis of selected therapeutic area. It is claimed that these exclusive research reports identify drivers of future growth and market size forecasts that drive decisions and shape strategies by executives. IMS with 2005 sales of $1.8 billion has a 30% market share and its global data, figures, graphs for top selling medicines are extensively covered in several popular news, financial, business, scientific and medical media thereby having a 100-fold multiplier impact factor as a yearly ritual. Similarly Ernst & Young, Accenture, IBM, Boston Consultancy, Price Waterhouse Cooper, Scrip, Reuters, Thompson-ISI and Datamonitor reports are quoted and reported extensively in new and old media. Unlike IMS, other data-mining firms do not report income/sales from pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.
In addition to industry, hedge funds, venture capital, investment funds, industry specific funds, leading banks and traders use these reports and data to make decisions about trade, investment and profits. All major pharmaceutical and biotech companies in the world are customers of such reports and data.
The advantage of these reports is that they provide a comprehensive list of blockbuster drugs, sales and companies involved and market trends. The disadvantages are the high cost of these reports, somewhat outdated data, confidential nature of the data collection and evaluation and divergence of sales figures in comparison with company reports. All commercial databases take shelter behind the safe harbor statement “their models and methodologies for estimation of sales figures may give results which may differ from actual results”. Company annual and quarterly reports and presentations provide easy access to real data for their top selling products. The disadvantage is that some European and Japanese companies still do not provide sales data for their best selling products and use a different financial year than the calendar year.
Global Sales Data
Forecasting and predicting the future markets and trends for pharmaceuticals and monitoring the actual market sales remains an important tool for the industry to plan its growth, R&D and marketing strategy. Several commercial reports cover global blockbuster drug sales and R&D trends (1-4) (Table 1). Differences of over $1 billion were observed for the top 1-2 brands and 0.5 billion for several brands (1-4) since 2002. The ranking of best selling brands and growth rates were significantly different. Ranking of the companies based on sales of biologic drugs, R&D expenses and R&D budgets was different as well (5-8) (Tables 2, 3).
Table 1. Global Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Market 2005-2006 ($ Billion)
Global Pharmaceutical Market IMS Health 2005 603
Global Biotechnology Market Ernst & Young 2005 63
Datamonitor 40
IMS 52
Leading therapeutic categories in 2005
|
Pharmaceuticals |
Market size |
Biotechnology |
Protein |
Market size |
|
CNS |
91 |
Anemia |
Erythropoietin |
12.3 |
|
Cardiovascular |
85 |
Immuno Inflammatory |
TNF Blockers |
8.6 |
|
Infections |
58 |
Diabetes |
Insulin |
7.2 |
|
Obesity |
35 |
MS+ Hepatitis C |
Interferon |
6.8 |
|
Cancer |
30 |
Cancer, Arthritis
Infection |
Monoclonal Antibodies |
14 |
|
Ulcer |
27 |
Infections |
Vaccines |
14 |
|
Diabetes |
20 |
Growth, fertility |
Hormones |
5 |
IMS Top Line Industry Data 2005; Ernst & Young 2006 Beyond Borders
Maggon K. R&D Paradigm Shift & billion dollar biologics. In Shayne C. Gad Ed. Handbook of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology. John Wiley, New York. 2007. In Press
Table 2. Top Companies Sales of Biologics in 2005
|
Company |
Sales $ billion
2005 |
Major Product Sale $ billion
2005 |
|
Amgen |
13 |
Enbrel 3.7, Aranesp 3.3 |
|
Roche |
9.3 |
Rituxan 3.2, Herceptin 1.7 |
|
J&J |
6.8 |
Remicade 3.5, Procrit 3.3 |
|
Novo Nordisk |
4.2 |
Novolin, analogs 3.6 |
|
Lilly |
3 |
Humulin, Humalog 2.1 |
|
Merck Serono |
2 |
Rebif 1.3 |
|
Bayer Schering |
2 |
PegIntron 1.4 |
|
Genzyme |
2 |
Cerazyme 0.93 |
|
Baxter |
1.8 |
r Proteins 1.2 |
|
Biogen Idec |
1.5 |
Avonex 1.2 |
|
Wyeth |
1.5 |
Prevanar 1.5 |
|
Sanofi Aventis |
1.4 |
Lantus 1.4 |
|
Abbott |
1.4 |
Humira 1.4 |
|
Schering Plough |
1.4 |
Remicade 0.9 |
|
MedImmune |
1.2 |
Synagis 1.1 |
Table 3. Top Brand Human Medicines in 2005
|
Generic Name |
Brands |
Companies |
Indications |
2005 Sales $ billion
Company IMS Diff |
|
Atorvastatin |
Lipitor |
Pfizer |
Cholesterol |
12.2 12.9 +0.7 |
|
Clopidrogel |
Plavix |
Bristol Myers Squibb, Sanofi Aventis |
Atherosclerosis |
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